The Matildas’ equation: Path to knockouts confirmed after Australia’s shock loss

The Matildas have learned their path to the knockout phase of the FIFA Women’s World Cup after their 3-2 defeat to Nigeria and Canada’s win over Republic of Ireland.

Australia opened the scoring through Emily Van Egmond just before half-time, but were pegged back almost immediately by Uchenna Kanu on the brink of half-time.

Nigeria put the foot down after half-time, scoring twice through Osinachi Ohale before Asisat Oshoala doubled their lead. Alanna Kennedy pulled one back late, but it was too little, too late for the Matildas.

It comes after Republic of Ireland also coughed up a one-goal lead and fell to a 2-1 defeat to Canada in Perth on Wednesday night – a result that confirmed their exit from the tournament at the group stages.

A Megan Connolly own goal just before half-time led to Adriana Leon’s second-half winner for Canada – bouncing back after Katie McCabe’s Olimpico opened the scoring.

It leaves the Matildas (three points) sitting one point below Nigeria (four) and Canada (four) in third place in the group. Australia now must simply beat the Olympic gold medalists if they are to secure a place in the final 16 ahead of Canada, but can also make it via a couple, less likely routes.

The jousting for the two spots will determine who from Group B will play Group D, featuring England, Denmark, China and Haiti, in either Sydney or Brisbane.

MATCH REPORT FROM BRISBANE: Matildas stunned by Nigeria

ANALYSIS: 45 minutes that could define Gustavsson’s tenure as decision sparks national debate

Australia’s qualification scenario after loss against Nigeria

If Australia beat Canada, then a place in the knockouts is confirmed; all that will be left to decide is whether the Matildas or Nigeria finish top of the group. Australia would need to win and rely on Republic of Ireland getting a result against the Super Falcons.

If Australia and Canada draw, then the Matildas will more than likely miss the knockout stages, but can still secure passage with a lot of help. They would need Nigeria to lose by two plus goals against Ireland, or Nigeria lose by one but Australia scores more goals in its match.

If Canada beat Australia, then Australia would be eliminated.

VISIT KEEPUP’S WOMEN’S WORLD CUP HUB!

‘It’s bittersweet’: ‘Heartbroken’ McCabe reacts to World Cup exit

When Katie McCabe’s curling delivery from an early corner set off on its flight path, the Republic of Ireland captain set off in celebration.

She knew before the ball hit the net where it was going. The perfectly-struck delivery hit the back of the net to put her side 1-0 up against Canada in Perth – and the ‘Olimpico’ finish from the corner was the nation’s very first goal at a Women’s World Cup.

It would have been a fitting goal to win any game – but in the cruel reality of football, it wasn’t to be.

By full-time Ireland had lost 2-1, and McCabe, who did everything in her power to haul her team back into the contest, let the tears flow.

Soon after she was asked what it meant to score her country’s first Women’s World Cup goal – which at that moment, might have felt like a lifetime ago.

“It’s bittersweet, isn’t it?” She replied. “Of course, it’s nice to score and get us off to a good start, but it’s the results that matter in this game and at this level, in this type of tournament.

“I’m just heartbroken for the girls; I felt they deserved so much more from the game. Just heartbroken.”

“Honestly, to captain these girls is an absolute honour, and an absolute privilege,” McCabe added. “I’m honestly just so proud of each and every one of them – staff included. It’s a joint effort, and we’ve done so much to get here Now it’s about pushing on.

“We know the level now. We’ve had experience at tournaments, we’re going to be hungry for more and against Nigeria we want to finish the tournament on a high, and give the fans something to cheer about, because they were absolutely immense all game.”

WEDNESDAY’S WORLD CUP FIXTURES

Japan 2-0 Costa Rica
Venue: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin

MATCH REPORT: Japan into last 16 after 2-0 win over Costa Rica

Spain 5-0 Zambia
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland

MATCH REPORT: Five-star Spain seal World Cup knockout place

Canada 2-1 Republic of Ireland
Venue: Perth Rectangular Stadium, Perth

MATCH REPORT: Canada beat Ireland 2-1 after early Olimpico setback

Re-live all the action from the Women’s World Cup on Wednesday with KEEPUP’s matchday blog.