Analysing Sydney FC’s strange season: A forgotten turning point & the football sin ‘we’re all guilty of’

Roy O’Donovan says Sydney FC deserved criticism for their early season woes – but after overcoming a combination of injuries, poor home form and “teething issues” within a brand new system, the Sky Blues have a chance to cause a Semi Final shakedown. 

In mid-November, the 2022-23 Isuzu UTE A-League season paused for the 2022 FIFA Men’s World Cup group stage. At the time, Sydney FC were winless at their shiny new home, missing key personnel through injury, and struggling to adapt to an off-season tactical evolution. 

The Sky Blues finished eighth under Steve Corica the season before, and after an unconvincing start to the new campaign, it seemed the Sydney boss was living on borrowed time.

Six months later, his team are at near-full strength, unbeaten in six games, and have timed their run perfectly to fight for a spot in the Grand Final.

The early-season criticism was warranted, says former A-Leagues striker Roy O’Donovan, but so are the plaudits for what’s happened since. O’Donovan speaks to KEEPUP in the aftermath of Sydney’s well-executed display in Saturday’s Sydney Derby Elimination Final, in which the Sky Blues came from one goal down to dominate the second half and wrestle back a 2-1 win with a pair of clinical goals.

Next up: a Semi Final against the Premiers Melbourne City. O’Donovan says the Sky Blues “can genuinely give City a game” across the two legs. 

This is how Corica’s side got to this point.

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The Sydney Derby hammering that changed everything

The Sky Blues look a completely different side since they were picked apart by the Wanderers in a 4-0 home defeat at Allianz Stadium on March 18.

The international break was to follow, leaving Sydney stewing over a result that could have easily been the catalyst for an end-of-season slump. Instead it led to Corica’s side finding a spark.

In the six games since that defeat, Sydney have improved in many facets of their collective game; it’s reflected not only in the results – two draws and four wins – but in the statistics, too.

In the 21 games up to and including the March derby, Sydney were scoring an average of 1.3 goals per game. They’ve improved that figure to 2.3 in the six games following. They’re taking more shots (17.0 v 15.6), and converting 14% of their shots compared to the 9% produced from Round 1-21.

Sydney are combining less passes per sequence, and getting into the penalty area less frequently – but, they’ve been far more efficient in and around the penalty area. So much of that comes down to the form of Adam Le Fondre and Robert Mak who have had a laser focus in front of goal of late.

Sydney are conceding less goals, too: an average of 1.6 goals conceded before the derby has been improved to 1.0 across their last six games – and that’s including the 3-3 draw with Western United that began the six-game unbeaten run. They have conceded just three goals in their last five games, keeping two clean sheets.

SYDNEY FC SINCE 4-0 DERBY DEFEAT
Pre-derby (per game)Post-derby (per game)
Games Played  216
Goals  1.32.3
Expected Goals  1.72.1
Total Shots15.617.0
Shooting Accuracy47%45%
Shot Conversion Rate9%14%
Passes  517.8547.8
Passing Accuracy  85%85%
Possession  54%54%
Penalty Area Entries  33.432.0
Passes per Sequence  3.84.2
Sequence Time (seconds)10.311.8
High Turnovers  8.37.5
Shots Faced (inc. Blocks)  12.810.7
Goals Conceded  1.61.0
Expected Goals Against  1.41.4

Banishing home hoodoo

Here’s a future pub quiz question to keep in your back pocket: after going winless through the club’s first three A-League Men games at Allianz Stadium, which team did Sydney FC beat to notch their first win at their new home?

Answer: Ange Postecoglou’s Celtic FC.

Sydney played host to the Scottish giants in November, on the eve of the 2022 FIFA Men’s World Cup. Goals to Robert Mak and Max Burgess, coupled with a sensational goalkeeping display from Thomas Heward-Belle, broke the Sky Blues’ early hoodoo at the new Allianz Stadium with a 2-1 win.

“The first few games at Allianz, they missed a couple of penalties and just couldn’t get over the line. They couldn’t get their first win at Allianz it seemed for an age,” O’Donovan says. 

“A huge thing in football is confidence. Maybe at the start of the season, had Sydney won at Allianz, maybe they would have run away with the league this year. We’ll never know. But they certainly reset themselves halfway through the season, and found those confidence levels.”

That result against Celtic in the Sydney Super Cup was significant. The Sky Blues emerged from the World Cup break to record their first league win at Allianz against none other than Melbourne City. The two sides meet at the same venue this weekend to kick off the Semi Finals.

Burgess scores against Celtic.

Finals door left ajar due to unpredictable regular season

“It is crazy, really, how tight as a whole the A-League Men was this year,” says O’Donovan.

Up until the final round of the regular season, all but one team was capable of making the Finals Series. 

In the end, Sydney finished fifth; it was end-of-season form that got the Sky Blues into the finals – but it was the evenness of the competition as a whole that allowed Corica’s side to remain relevant in the discussion through the peaks and troughs of an inconsistent campaign as a whole.

“It seems like for a big chunk of the season, Sydney were sitting in seventh or eighth place, and that was kind of where they were sitting at for a long period of time,” O’Donovan says. “But really and truly, there was only at times three-to-six points between the Mariners and Wanderers – who were flying early doors – to everybody else. 

“The good thing about Sydney FC’s form is it’s all kind of come at a really good time.” 

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History repeating after Arnold’s Sydney shake-up

Recency bias is a factor when summarising a coach’s performance, says O’Donovan. He’s seen it in the way Corica’s tenure has been compared to his predecessor’s, Graham Arnold. 

The now-Socceroos leader took on a national team role after the 2017-18 A-League season. Sydney had won the Premiership/Championship double the season prior, and lifted the Premiers Plate in Arnold’s final campaign – but, were unable to clinch back-to-back Championships, bowing out to Melbourne Victory in the Semi Finals.

Corica was Arnold’s assistant, and subsequently stepped into the head coaching role. He’s been compared to his predecessor ever since. 

“Football fans, we’re all guilty of it, you only remember what’s happened in the immediate term,” O’Donovan says. “We remember people in high regard with nostalgia as years go on, but Arnie had his struggles as well at Sydney FC. 

“In 2015 they lost the Grand Final, and the following year they finished (seventh) in the A-League, and he had to do a little bit of a rebuild.

“Now, he did it very well and they went on to be very successful over the next three or four seasons. But no route to success is a straight line. It’s usually a jagged line to get to the top of the mountain – and Corica and Graham Arnold are no different.”

After a seventh place finish in 2015-16, Arnold cleaned out the Sydney FC squad, recruiting the likes of Bobo, Danny Vukovic, Josh Brillante, Bernie Ibini, Michael Zullo and Alex Wilkinson. They went on to win three out of four pieces of league silverware in the following two seasons prior to Arnold’s departure.

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ANALYSIS: The secret to Sydney’s resurgence lies in Mak’s latest Wanderers sledge

Graham Arnold (right) and Steve Corica.

‘Teething problems’ adjusting to a new system

Last season, Corica’s Sky Blues went one rung below Arnold’s seventh-place finish in 2015-16, ending the 2021-22 campaign in eighth – the club’s lowest regular-season finish on record. 

Corica oversaw a similar off-season squad rejuvenation to the one that took place under Arnold in 2016. He brought in the likes of Rodwell, Joe Lolley, Robert Mak and Diego Caballo – but it wasn’t just a shift in personnel, it was a total revamp of his side’s formation from the 4-4-2 approach he inherited from Arnold.

“It’s hard to coach,” says O’Donovan. “They have been one of the more successful clubs in A-League history under Arnie and Corica at the start, playing a box midfield.

“A lot of that was to do with not having a lot of pace in wide areas, but very technically astute players. Think about Milos Ninkovic, Anthony Caceres, Max Burgess and Luke Brattan for that matter, they could receive the ball in tight areas and play that forward pass that can open up defences from that position.

“They never really had that threat in the wide areas like they have now, with Joe Lolley and Robert Mak who not only have the skillset to come from out wide and score goals, but on the outside, they’re quick as well, and can create for the striker.

“But to coach that, it’s hard to get people to change their mindset. Imagine you’ve been so successful for a number of years, you’ve lifted three or four (trophies), a few toilet seats along the way, and all of a sudden someone is telling you you’re going from a 4-4-2 to a 4-3-3.

“That can have teething problems as well. Maybe that was the case, but come the back end of the season, they really have come good. They’ve peaked at just the right time – and it’s exciting.”

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Key personnel on the park – and vitally, at the same time

It’s no coincidence that a run of six unbeaten games has coincided with some of Sydney’s most important players recovering from injury to clock consistent minutes on the park.

Jack Rodwell was one of Corica’s prized off-season signings, but the Englishman wasn’t sighted in Sky Blue until after the World Cup break due to an adductor injury.

His debut in Round 7 lasted just 46 minutes, with a back injury sidelining the central defender once again. From Round 19 to 25 Rodwell played 7 consecutive games, missing the last round of the season through concussion before helping to monster Western Sydney’s attack in week one of the finals.

His central defensive partner Alex Wilkinson reached 600 career games this season, and is the most experienced Finals Series player of all four clubs remaining in the title hunt. He missed three months with a groin injury suffered in Round 1. 

Striker Adam Le Fondre has scored five goals in his last five games. He missed almost two months with a hamstring injury in mid-season.

“They’ve got their experienced players back on the park,” says O’Donovan. “Some of the more senior players – quality players.

“Adam Le Fondre was a huge loss – certainly in the main part of the season. Without a recognised number nine presence I thought they struggled a little bit for balance. But in the Derby, and the quality in their Elimination Final was anything to go by, they’ve certainly found the balance again, their rhythm.

“I thought their press was terrific, I thought at times they sat off and soaked up pressure like an experienced, quality team does – and they took their chances when they came along as well. 

“Even the likes of Rhyan Grant, it seems like he’s played himself back into form whereas in the middle of the season, he was being questioned. You saw him at the weekend, how much it meant to him after the game but also during the game, the way he’s been playing the last couple of months is just great to see.”

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Corica’s ‘foresight’

“If we’re going to take football seriously, everybody is open to criticism,” says O’Donovan.

And Corica has copped plenty of it throughout the 2022-23 season. 

Often time coaches will not get the opportunity to persevere through lean patches of form and poor performances. Through all of Sydney’s indifferent form across two seasons, Corica’s capability to perform the role of Sydney head coach has often come into question. 

But the club opted for patience – and across the last six weeks of A-League Men action, Corica has repaid the faith.

“At times this season, Sydney weren’t hitting the mark, to be quite honest about it,” O’Donovan adds. “You have to call it as you see it… (but) you have to give great credit to his temperament, really. 

“He’s never come off to me in an interview as someone who is angry, or on the edge. He’s always remained calm, focussed and kept the same message. There’s a lot of credit due there. 

“When a team is looking at their manager, and they’re going through a sticky patch, they look to the coach for some guidance. Sometimes that’s not on the training field, that’s in how they carry themselves – and I think he’s carried himself really well.

“When he’s needed to fight for his players he has, when he’s needed to stay calm and show them the way he has, and as I said, all-in-all he would have been preaching to his team: we’ll come good, we just need to keep working.

“He’s been given the time, and they’ve been reaping the rewards. I think he’s had a lot of foresight to stick with his guns, and end the season now in a really healthy place.”

“The last six or seven weeks have been a joy to watch,” O’Donovan continued. “It’s attacking football, defensively they’ve looked a lot more structured and set up. They look like a team heading in the right direction. But I think every team across the league, when they’re not playing well and not doing things right, they deserve criticism. 

“There were so many question marks over them: was the setup right? Was Corica the man for the job? Has he got the stock right for this kind of football? But I think there are a lot of boxes ticked now, and they can go a lot further. 

“I think they can really genuinely give Melbourne City a game, and there are not many teams in the competition that can.”

SEMI FINAL FIXTURES
WEEK ONE

Sydney FC v Melbourne City – first leg
Friday, May 12 2023
Allianz Stadium
Kick-off: 7.45pm AEST
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Adelaide United v Central Coast Mariners – first leg
Saturday, May 13 2023
Coopers Stadium
Kick-off: 7.45pm AEST
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