Neds Elimination Finals Preview: No second chances on road to semi’s

The Isuzu UTE A-League finals series kicks off this weekend, with Wellington Phoenix travelling to face Western United at AAMI Park on Saturday before Adelaide United and Central Coast Mariners meet at Coopers Stadium on Sunday.

THE ELIMINATION FINALS AGEDA

Western United v Wellington Phoenix
Saturday, May 14 2022
AAMI Park
Kick-off: 7.45pm AEST
Broadcast: Network 10, Paramount+
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Adelaide United v Central Coast Mariners
Sunday, May 15 2022
Coopers Stadium
Kick-off: 4.00pm AEST
Broadcast: Network 10, Paramount+
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Secure your seat to the finals:

THE FINALS FORMAT

ADELAIDE UNITED v CENTRAL COAST MARINERS

It’s fourth against fifth – but form suggests otherwise.

Adelaide United and Central Coast Mariners ended the regular season as the league’s two most in-form teams, clocking five wins apiece in succession on the road to the finals. 

Central Coast ended the regular season on 42 points under head coach Nick Montgomery thanks to the late-season surge – the same amount the Mariners collected under Alen Stajcic last season.

The Reds went one better than the Mariners, with the 43 points collected by Carl Veart’s side enough to seal fourth spot and a home final.

Now, attention turns to the Sunday afternoon clash between the two hottest teams in the league.

It’s what makes next weekend’s elimination final bout – set to take place at Coopers Stadium – all the more enticing as the stakes raise with the post-season’s arrival.

KEY STATS

  • This will be the third A-League Men finals meeting between Adelaide United and Central Coast Mariners; the Mariners have won each of their previous two post-season fixtures by a 1-0 margin – the Reds are one of three teams the Mariners are yet to lose against in finals fixtures in the competition (W1 v Gold Coast United and W1 v Melbourne Victory).
  • Adelaide United have won their last four A-League Men finals games on the bounce in South Australia, their longest winning run in their home state in post-season fixtures in the history of the competition and more than they had won in all their nine such matches prior to that span (W3, D2, L4).
  • This will be just the Central Coast Mariners’ sixth A-League Men finals match outside New South Wales; they are winless in their last four post-season fixtures outside their home state (D1, L3) – their only victory in such games did come against Adelaide United however (1-0, 26 February 2006).
  • The Central Coast Mariners have scored eight goals from outside the box in the 2021/22 A-League Men season, the most of any team in the competition despite having made just 4.4 shots at goal from outside the box per game this season – the joint-second fewest of any team.
  • Adelaide United have scored 39% of their total goals (15/38) this A-League Men season after the 76th minute of matches, the highest rate of any team and most goals of any side during this period; the Central Coast Mariners (13) have scored the joint-second most goals of any team during this time (also Melbourne Victory – 13).
  • Craig Goodwin (Adelaide United) has created 3.3 scoring chances per game in the 2021/22 A-League Men season, the most by any player; in fact, he’s been directly involved in five goals in his last five appearances in the competition (2 goals, 3 assists).

FORM LINE (LAST FIVE GAMES)

Adelaide United: W – W – W – W – W

Adelaide went winless in four consecutive games heading into the final five fixtures of the season, but turned it all around with wins over Macarthur, Sydney, Perth, Brisbane and Western United. In that time the Reds scored 10 goals and conceded just three to cement their spot in the top four.

Central Coast Mariners: W – W – W – W – W

Five games, 13 goals for, two against, four clean sheets. Central Coast are absolutely flying on their way to the finals – and will target a sixth win in succession against the Reds on Sunday night. 

HEAD-TO-HEAD THIS SEASON

Adelaide United 2-1 Central Coast

February 26, 2022. Coopers Stadium.

When these two sides last met at Coopers Stadium, Adelaide emerged with all three points thanks to Nestory Irankunda’s stoppage-time strike. That result came at a time when the Mariners simply couldn’t hold on to points late in games; the Mariners have addressed that issue of late as the clean sheets mount along with the wins.

Central Coast 3-0 Adelaide United 

March 26, Central Coast Stadium.

Reds keeper Joe Gauci received a red card after colliding with Mariners forward Marco Ureña outside the box early in the first half. The Mariners went on to take full advantage, with Ureña, Jason Cummings and Matt Hatch scoring second-half goals to set up a 3-0 win. 

TIP

It’s the contest between two sides who have forgotten how to lose – and in a matchup so difficult to split, perhaps it will be home ground advantage proving the difference for the Reds.

Adelaide’s Craig Goodwin and Central Coast’s Jason Cummings are two of the most in-form players in the competition; expect one, if not two of them to shine for their respective sides as they loom as potential game-breakers on Sunday.

WESTERN UNITED v WELLINGTON PHOENIX

After a one-season hiatus, Western United make a swift return to the finals series in head coach John Aloisi’s first season at the helm.

In season three of the club’s existence, Western have finished fifth, 10th and now third, collecting a club-record 45 points in the current campaign.

But despite taking the club to new heights in 2021-22, Aloisi will end the regular season frustrated by the fact his team did not clinch a spot in the top two and automatic qualification to the semifinals, having been in those positions for much of the campaign.

Instead they face Wellington Phoenix, the team defying all odds to qualify for the finals. Despite playing just twice on home soil, the ‘Nix managed to finish in the six for the second time in head coach Ufuk Talay’s three-season tenure. It’s been a bumpy road to the finals for Wellington, with hefty defeats scattered amongst gutsy performances and unbeaten runs. Wellington won four of their last six games to clinch sixth spot – including an emphatic 4-1 win over Western in early April.

FORM LINE (LAST FIVE GAMES)

Western United: L – D – L – W – W

A three-game winless run heading into finals is less than ideal for Western, who must now progress through the elimination finals instead of safely travelling through to the two-legged semifinals by finishing in the top two.

Wellington Phoenix: L – W – L – W – L 

After securing their top six status against Western Sydney on May 5, Wellington faced Melbourne City on Monday night and fell to a gutsy 2-1 defeat.

The ‘Nix have gone loss, win, loss, win, loss in their last five fixtures, and haven’t notched a draw in their past 14 games.

KEY STATS

  • Wellington Phoenix have a 75% win percentage in the A-League Men against Western United FC, their best rate against any team in the history of the competition; they are undefeated in their last seven meetings (W6, D1) – although this will be the first time they have met in the finals in the competition.
  • Western United FC have lost only two of their last 14 A-League Men games played at AAMI Park (W9 D3) and are undefeated in their last five games at the venue (W3 D2); though, this will be their first finals game at the venue and just their third post-season game overall (W1 L1).
  • Wellington Phoenix have won only one of their last seven A-League Men finals matches (L6), a 3-2 win against Sydney FC (30 March 2012); in fact, the Phoenix will be aiming for their first post-season victory in Australia in the history of the competition (L5).
  • Melbourne City FC (52 minutes) are the only team to have given fewer minutes per game to substitute players in the 2021/22 A-League Men season than Western United FC (59) and the Wellington Phoenix (64); indeed, no team has scored fewer goals via substitutes this season

HEAD-TO-HEAD THIS SEASON

Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Western United

January 21, 2022. WIN Stadium, Wollongong.

Gael Sandoval and Gary Hooper struck in the first half for the Phoenix, who looked set to cruise to a 2-0 win before a chaotic end to the game which saw Took Imai sent off in the 91st minute, and Steven Lustica grab one back for the visitors in the 94th.

Western United 1-4 Wellington Phoenix

April 9, 2022. Morshead Park, Ballarat.

Goals to Scott Wootton, Gael Sandoval and a Jaushua Sotirio brace helped Wellington defeat Western in style, with Steven Lustica the solitary goalscorer for the home side in Ballarat in early April.

TIP

Western make the most of home ground advantage to progress to the semifinals. One of the best teams all year, a lull in form heading into the finals has seen doubts arise of Western’s ability to progress deep into the finals – but as the team with the second-best defensive record comes up against the team with the equal worst, that defensive solidity should be enough to get Western over the line.