How do you contain Melbourne City? How do you infiltrate Western United? Title-winning coach Ernie Merrick breaks down the Grand Final tactics.
The English writer Oscar Wilde once characterised fox hunting by the upper classes as the unspeakable in pursuit of the uneatable.
On Saturday night, you could say the Grand Final pitches the unbreachable against the unstoppable – but something has to give, and this is how I think it will play out.
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FORMATIONS: Should Kisnorbo play one No.6?
Melbourne City will play with a back four and three forwards; the interesting part for me is how their midfield sets up. Patrick Kisnorbo has played with both one holding midfielder and two this year but I think one will be enough because it will allow the two more attack-minded midfielders, Connor Metcalfe and Florin Berenguer, not only to get forward but to get on top of Western’s deep-lying playmaker (see below).
Berenguer has had an outstanding year and I think it’s because that role, somewhere between a No 8 and a No 10, suits him.
The issue though is the injury to Aiden O’Neill, which would mean Taras Gamulka playing that defensive role aged 21 – does he have the experience and the game intelligence? Could Rostyn Griffiths be an alternative?
Further forward, City have an enviable front three; Matt Leckie, Jamie Maclaren and Andrew Nabbout have all played at World Cups. The one concern I see is that both wingers, Nabbout in particular, like to stay wide, even when the other has the ball. It can lead to a short-fall in bodies in the box; City tend to leave it to Maclaren to get on the end of balls in, but having another figure in there shortens the odds on converting chances which in a Grand Final can be meagre in number.
In fact this is another argument for Kisnorbo playing just one holding midfielder, allowing Metcalfe and Berenguer to make late runs into the box, especially as coming from midfield they can target gaps between the defenders.
Western United have an unusual structure that morphs depending on whether they are defending or in attack. Without the ball they condense to a conventional 4-4-2, with Connor Pain and Lachie Wales defending in front of their fullbacks. But once they switch to attack, often quickly, Pain and/or Wales is able to move forward infield, opening space for the full-backs Josh Risdon and Ben Garuccio to race forward on the outside. In fact Risdon and Garuccio are vital for United, given their pace, crossing ability and ability to recover.
Key to this all happening – and the speed of the counterattacking – is Neil Kilkenny’s role as a quarterback to all intents and purposes. He’s a deep-lying playmaker, fond of the big switch of play, with the passing range to exploit the movement and pace of both fullbacks and both wingers.
At the apex is Aleksander Prijovic, a sublime striker whose class has grown increasingly evident the fitter he has become and the more attuned he gets to those around him. I’m not sure Pain and Wales would have played with too many strikers of such subtle movement and clinical finishing, but they are learning from him every week.
Interestingly, a side that specialised in 1-0 wins for much of the season has opened up a bit more; they had to in the second leg of the semi-final, facing a one-goal deficit, but will they have the nerve to do it in a one-off Grand Final?
THE COACHES
Coaching in a Grand Final is a unique experience. For the only time in the season, there is nothing beyond it, no longer-term strategy to consider; and no chance to put anything right.
Both Kisnorbo and John Aloisi have done extraordinarily well in different ways; Kisnorbo has kept his side away from the devil of complacency, and Aloisi has instilled a winning mentality. Both recruited well, John in particular; both are shrewd tactically, and have systems their players understand.
THE DIFFERENCE
For me the game will be decided by two things; which side is able to create chances from their midfield, because both attacks will be so well marshalled; and which players will have the mentality to thrive on the day, to play to their own strengths rather than be consumed by those of the opposition.
